Expert Mode from The Agile Brand Guide®

Expert Mode: Turning the Trillion-Dollar Returns Problem into a Revenue Engine

This article was based on the interview with Laura Huddle, Chief Revenue Officer at Seel by Greg Kihlström, AI and MarTech keynote speaker for The Agile Brand with Greg Kihlström podcast. Listen to the original episode here:

For as long as e-commerce has existed, customer returns have been the operational equivalent of a migraine. They are a line item on the P&L that only ever seems to go in one direction, a logistical labyrinth, and a source of customer friction that can sour an otherwise positive brand experience.

We, as marketing leaders, spend fortunes crafting seamless pre-purchase journeys, optimizing every click and impression, only to have the entire relationship tested in the often-clunky, anxiety-inducing post-purchase phase. The return is where brand promises meet operational reality, and too often, reality falls short. It’s a trillion-dollar problem globally, a figure so large it can feel more like an unavoidable cost of doing business than a strategic challenge to be solved.

But what if we’ve been looking at this all wrong? What if the most dreaded part of the customer journey is actually one of the most potent, untapped opportunities for differentiation and growth? This isn’t about wishful thinking or marketing spin; it’s about a fundamental reframing of the post-purchase experience from a cost center to a loyalty and retention driver. According to Laura Huddle, Chief Revenue Officer at Seel, the data points to an urgent need for this shift. With rising consumer anxiety and the normalization of “try-before-you-buy” behavior, the return is no longer an afterthought—it’s a core component of the buying decision itself. The brands that master this moment of truth will not only shore up their P&L but will also build a durable, long-term competitive advantage built on trust.

The Shifting Psychology of the Return

The first step in transforming returns is to understand that the reasons behind them are changing. It’s no longer just about a product that arrived damaged or was the wrong size. In today’s economic climate, the “why” is far more nuanced, driven by psychological and financial pressures that marketing leaders must understand. Returns have become a release valve for consumer anxiety. Huddle notes that this isn’t a temporary blip but a systemic shift in behavior.

“The why behind returns is shifting. So it’s less about defective items and more about uncertainty or expectation mismatch and second guessing. Shoppers want predictability, like fast resolution, clarity on timing, no hidden risks. And this is why the return experience matters in all economic climates. Even in a boom, trust and predictability, that’s what wins loyalty.”

Huddle’s insight here is critical for every leader focused on the customer journey. We invest heavily in building confidence pre-purchase, but her point underscores that a lack of confidence in the post-purchase process can kill the sale before it even happens. A survey she cites found that 74% of shoppers wouldn’t make a purchase if the item wasn’t returnable. This tells us that the returns policy is no longer just a link in the website footer; it’s a key feature of the product itself. Consumers are proactively de-risking their purchases in an uncertain world. The brands that meet this need with predictability, clarity, and a frictionless process are not just handling a return; they are reinforcing the trust that will bring that customer back for their next purchase.

From P&L Drain to Practical Gains

The theory of turning returns into a loyalty driver is appealing, but the CFO in the room will always ask for the numbers. How does investing in a traditionally loss-making activity generate a positive ROI? Huddle provides a clear, practical framework that moves the conversation from the abstract to the tangible, focusing on metrics that directly impact the bottom line: conversion, average order value (AOV), and operational expenses. The financial stakes are immense, making this a conversation that needs to happen at the highest levels.

“Here’s the P&L reality. The average brand loses 17% of revenue to refunds, and they spend another 8% on non-shipping op-ex to operate their post-purchase services. So that’s a whopping 25% of top line revenue… The first one is conversion lift… We provide returns for final sale items… and the result is a final sale plus a return option that drives significantly higher conversion with no meaningful increase in return rates. The second area is higher AOV… And the third is lower operating expenses.”

This is the P&L argument laid bare. A quarter of top-line revenue being eroded by post-purchase operations is simply unsustainable, especially when public e-commerce brands often operate on margins far slimmer than that. Huddle’s example of offering returns on “final sale” items is a perfect illustration of the mindset shift. Traditionally, “final sale” is a blunt instrument used to clear inventory at the cost of customer confidence. By underwriting the risk, a brand can de-risk the purchase for the consumer, unlocking revenue that was previously left on the table. This confidence extends to AOV; a customer who knows a return is simple and guaranteed is more likely to add a higher-priced item or a second color to their cart. Finally, the ability to shift the customer support burden and complex logistics to a specialized partner directly reduces OpEx. It’s a three-pronged financial win that turns a defensive cost-cutting exercise into an offensive revenue-generating strategy.

The Strategic Moat: Data, Circularity, and Enduring Loyalty

In the long run, a tactical financial win is good, but a sustainable competitive advantage is better. The true power of mastering the post-purchase experience lies in creating a moat that competitors find difficult to cross. This moat is built on two pillars: the compounding advantage of data and the brand-building power of a sustainable, circular model. Technology, particularly AI, is the engine that makes this possible, turning a chaotic process into a predictable, data-rich ecosystem.

“The moat is the consumer. Brands that deliver a frictionless, trusted, post-purchase experience, they’ll earn loyalty that money cannot buy… Every return generates insights into future forecasting, merchandising, and the customer experience. And that advantage compounds over time… I think the biggest opportunity is in circularity. We need to ensure that returned items are resold and reused rather than being wasted and going to landfill.”

Huddle connects the operational process of returns directly to long-term brand strategy. Every return is a data point. It provides insight into product-market fit, sizing issues, description accuracy, and consumer behavior. An AI-powered system can aggregate these data points at scale, creating a powerful feedback loop that informs everything from future product design to merchandising strategy. This is a data advantage that grows with every transaction, making the brand smarter and more responsive over time.

Furthermore, she highlights the rising importance of circularity. For modern consumers, especially younger generations, sustainability isn’t just a buzzword; it’s a key factor in their purchasing decisions. A returns process that simply leads to landfills is not only financially wasteful but also a significant brand liability. By building a system where returned items are efficiently processed and resold, brands can recover value, reduce waste, and tell a powerful sustainability story. This transforms the return from a negative transaction into a positive brand action, meeting consumer expectations for convenience and corporate responsibility simultaneously.

The New Last Mile

The narrative around customer returns is overdue for a rewrite. For too long, we’ve accepted it as a painful but necessary evil, a logistical problem to be minimized rather than a strategic opportunity to be maximized. The insights from experts like Laura Huddle challenge this thinking, forcing us to look at the post-purchase journey not as the end of the road, but as a critical touchpoint that can define the future of the customer relationship. The data is clear: consumer behavior has shifted, and the demand for predictability and trust now extends far beyond the “buy” button.

The path forward requires a new mindset, one that sees the potential for revenue, data, and loyalty where we once saw only costs and complexity. It means leveraging technology like AI to turn unpredictability into a science and aligning operational processes with modern consumer values like sustainability. The brands that win the next decade of e-commerce will be those that understand that a seamless return isn’t the end of a sale, but the confident beginning of the next one. They will transform a linear, and often broken, journey into a “value loop” that reinforces trust, builds loyalty, and ultimately drives sustainable, profitable growth.

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