This article was based on the interview with Nataly Kelly, CMO at Zappi by Greg Kihlström, AI Adoption in Marketing keynote speaker for The Agile Brand with Greg Kihlström podcast. Listen to the original episode here:
The day after the Super Bowl, the marketing world engages in its annual ritual of armchair quarterbacking. We debate the funniest gags, the most surprising celebrity cameos, and which brand “won” the night. It’s a fun exercise, but for those of us responsible for the budgets that fuel these spectacles, the conversation is—or should be—far more rigorous. When a 30-second spot carries a price tag of eight million dollars before a single celebrity is hired or camera rolls, the only metric that truly matters isn’t buzz, but business impact. Did the ad connect with the right audience? Did it reinforce the brand? And most critically, did it create a clear path to purchase uplift and long-term brand equity?
This isn’t about diminishing the role of great creative; it’s about grounding it in strategy and data. Too often, the high-stakes pressure of the Super Bowl leads to a reliance on familiar but flawed playbooks: throw a few celebrities at the problem, aim for a cheap laugh, and hope for the best. But hope is not a strategy. The smartest brands understand that this single moment is part of a larger campaign, and its success hinges on a deep, data-driven understanding of the consumer. Based on insights from Zappi, which tested this year’s ads with 20,000 category buyers, we can move beyond subjective opinion to see what truly separates a memorable moment from a profitable one.
The Eight-Million-Dollar Blind Spot: The Female Audience
One of the most persistent and perplexing findings is the gap in how brands approach the female audience. While the NFL reports its viewership is now nearly evenly split at 49% female, the creative often feels like a holdover from a bygone era. More importantly, women drive an estimated 85% of household purchasing decisions. Ignoring or misrepresenting this demographic isn’t just a social misstep; it’s a fundamental business error. Nataly Kelly highlights just how significant this disconnect is.
“Our analysis shows that even though women appear in two-thirds of the ads, they are not the focal point of the creative in many… just over a quarter of the Super Bowl ads had women being kind of, you know, front and center and having an important role within the ad itself. So, the women are not centered in the story. That really limits how strongly the ads will resonate with a very large and influential segment of the audience.” – Nataly Kelly
The strategic imperative here is clear. Reaching the female audience isn’t a niche strategy; it’s the core strategy for a vast number of CPG, automotive, and beverage brands. What’s more, the data reveals an interesting truth: ads that resonate strongly with women tend to perform well with men, too. The reverse, however, is not always true. This suggests that focusing on strong storytelling, emotional connection, and relatable characters—elements that often perform well with women—creates a more universally effective ad. This isn’t about pandering; it’s about producing better, more commercially potent creative that acknowledges the reality of who is watching, and more importantly, who is buying.
The Celebrity Paradox: Amplifier or Distraction?
The use of celebrities in Super Bowl advertising is almost a given. The logic seems sound: a famous face can cut through the clutter and grab attention. However, Zappi’s data shows that while celebrities appeared in 68% of Super Bowl ads (compared to 25% in typical TV advertising), their presence is no guarantee of success. In fact, it can often be a detriment, leading to a classic case of the consumer remembering the star but not the brand that paid for their appearance.
"While they can drive relevance and distinctiveness, Greg, it can also be distracting and it can interrupt and impact brand recall… often the consumers don’t remember the brand, they remember the celebrity instead. And so you want them to remember your brand. It’s really important that they fit naturally with the brand and that it’s authentic to who they are, but they have to reinforce what the brand is trying to say… the common thread is not fame. It’s that the celebrity serves the purpose of the brand and the story, not the other way around.” – Nataly Kelly
The key is the distinction between using a celebrity as a tactic versus a strategy. When a celebrity is merely dropped into a concept, they become an expensive distraction. The successful executions, like Michelob Ultra’s ad with Kurt Russell or Bud Light’s “Keg” ad, wove the celebrity into the fabric of the story in a way that felt authentic and reinforced the brand’s message. They served the idea, not the other way around. For marketing leaders, the lesson is to challenge the assumption that star power equals effectiveness. The critical questions are: Does this person authentically align with our brand values? Does their presence amplify the core message or overshadow it? Answering these honestly can be the difference between a sound investment and spending millions to be the memorable backdrop for someone else’s brand.
Measuring What Matters: From Entertainment to Efficacy
Ultimately, the goal of an advertisement is not to win USA Today’s Ad Meter, but to drive business results. This requires a more sophisticated measurement framework than simple “likeability.” An ad can be hilarious, emotionally moving, and the talk of the town, but if it fails to drive brand recall and purchase intent, it has failed in its primary objective. This is where a rigorous, multi-faceted approach to measurement becomes non-negotiable.
“We actually have a framework that looks at a bunch of different things. We call this our sales impact score and it’s a hybrid metric, a roll up metric of five different things. So, we look at purchase uplift… distinctiveness… brand recall… overall emotion… and the top scoring emotion… What the data shows is that entertainment can help, but only when it translates into brand and business outcomes. And that’s how we separate the ads that people talk about the next day from the ads that actually help brands win with consumers and gain market share.” – Nataly Kelly
This framework highlights the biggest mistake brands make: failing to connect the creative idea to a business outcome. We saw this with several of the AI-focused ads this year. They were clever and self-referential, but they spoke to an inside-baseball audience and failed to land with the broader consumer base, resulting in poor performance across the board. The ads that succeeded, like those from Wegovy, Pringles, and Dove, managed to be entertaining while keeping the brand and product at the center of the narrative. They understood that emotion, humor, and surprise are tools to achieve an end—stronger brand connection and sales—not the end in and of themselves.
Summary
As the dust settles on another Super Bowl, the takeaways for marketing leaders are less about specific creative trends and more about the enduring principles of strategic marketing. Winning on the biggest stage isn’t about having the biggest celebrity, the most elaborate CGI, or the edgiest joke. It’s about a relentless focus on the fundamentals: a deep understanding of your entire audience, the discipline to ensure your creative serves your brand strategy, and a commitment to measuring what actually drives the business forward. The data shows a clear path to success, and it’s paved with consumer insight, not just creative intuition.
Looking ahead, the brands that will win in 2025 and beyond will be those that master this balance. They will leverage data not to stifle creativity, but to inform it, ensuring their massive investments are not just gambles, but calculated moves designed for maximum impact. They will test, iterate, and refine, starting the process in April for a moment in February, all to de-risk an inherently risky endeavor. The Super Bowl will always be a showcase of creative ambition, but for the most effective brands, it is first and foremost a powerful engine for business growth.
