New public tracker at holidayshopping.ai compiles more than 100 sources and nearly 2,000 data points on holiday shopping since 1992, including an AI Shopping Index that follows how consumers and AI agents shop
[Arlington, VA] – The Agile Brand today released its 2026 holiday shopping predictions, forecasting that US holiday retail sales will grow 3.0% to 3.5% this season, below the 4.1% to 5.5% range expected by most major forecasters. The predictions are published on The Agile Brand’s Holiday Shopping Tracker, where they will be scored in January against the same government and industry data used to grade the National Retail Federation, Adobe, Mastercard, Bain & Company and other forecasters.
The Agile Brand’s four 2026 predictions:
- Total holiday sales will grow 3.0% to 3.5% (November–December, NRF definition, measured by US Census data), about $1.0 trillion. NRF forecasts 4.2%.
- Real growth after inflation will be 0.5% to 1.5%, below last year’s 1.7%. Higher prices, not more purchases, will account for most of this season’s growth.
- Seasonal retail hiring will come in under 360,000, below 2025’s 362,600, which was already the fewest since 2008 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, October-to-December change in retail employment).
- AI-referred traffic to retail sites will grow faster than Adobe’s 130% forecast, while AI agents will complete fewer than 3% of holiday online orders. Shoppers are using AI to research, but few are ready to let it buy for them.
“Most holiday forecasts are published in the fall and quietly forgotten by January,” said Greg Kihlström, founder of The Agile Brand. “We built this tracker to compare predictions with what actually happened, and that only works if we hold our own forecast to the same standard. Our data points to a slower season than the consensus, with prices doing more of the work and AI changing how people shop well before it changes how they buy.”
What the data shows
“Online sales” depends on who is counting. For the 2025 season, Census e-commerce for the fourth quarter was $365 billion, Census nonstore sales for November and December were $274 billion, and Adobe’s November–December online figure was about $253 billion.
Forecasts have a mixed record. NRF has published a forecast range every year since 2017. Measured against current Census data, actual growth has not landed inside that range in any of those nine seasons.
Consumers are cautious going in. Pre-season readings are among the weakest in the tracker’s history: University of Michigan consumer sentiment finished October at 48.0, the lowest pre-season reading in the data; gasoline averages $4.20 a gallon, higher than any previous pre-season level on file; and the personal saving rate fell to 3.8% in September, the lowest since November 2022.
Holiday sales have not grown in real terms since 2021. Adjusted for overall inflation, holiday retail sales peaked in 2021 and remained below that level through 2025.
Shoppers say AI helps them research, not buy. 39% of holiday shoppers call generative AI a primary shopping tool (Deloitte). Among likely Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers, 43% would let an AI tool find the best price, but only 4% would let it complete a purchase without asking first (YouGov).
AI shopping agents are hard to measure. The tracker follows seven consumer shopping agents, including Meta Muse, Alexa for Shopping, Google, ChatGPT, OpenAI Dots, Perplexity and Copilot. Several cannot be seen by standard web-traffic tools.
Follow the season
The Holiday Shopping Tracker is free and updated throughout the season. It compares each forecaster’s predictions with actual results dating back to 1992, separates figures measured differently, and links every number to its source. The Agile Brand Guide will publish a scorecard comparing its own predictions with those of other forecasters in January 2027.
Holiday Shopping Tracker: https://www.holidayshopping.ai
About The Agile Brand Guide
The Agile Brand Guide, founded by Greg Kihlström, publishes research, podcasts and guides on marketing, customer experience, and technology. Founded in 2018, the organization has released over 1,000 podcast episodes, 30 books, and reaches millions with its website and online resources.
