By Tyler Goldberg, Assembly Global
The 2026 midterms are projected to see nearly $11B in political ad spending. That headline number is remarkable on its own, but what it represents may be even more significant. Political advertising has evolved from a cyclical surge every two years into a structural force that shapes how media markets function year-round.
For campaigns, this means operating in an environment that is more competitive, more expensive, and more saturated than ever before. For the broader advertising marketplace, it introduces volatility and concentration in ways that ripple beyond Election Day.
Over the past decade, political advertising has steadily grown into one of the most reliable areas of expansion in media. Midterms now rival presidential cycles in intensity: Senate races regularly command nine-figure budgets and competitive House districts are concentrated in some of the country’s largest and most expensive media markets. Gubernatorial contests in swing states increasingly draw national attention and funding.
Several long-term trends underpin this growth. Court decisions expanded the flow of political capital, nationalization has elevated once-local races into high-profile battlegrounds, and narrow congressional margins have heightened the stakes in individual districts. At the same time, persuadable audiences have become harder and more costly to reach, particularly after recent redistricting changes.
This sustained growth has practical consequences for the media ecosystem. When political dollars pour into competitive markets, inventory tightens, and prices escalate. Broadcast television continues to command a significant share of political budgets, even as connected TV and digital channels grow incrementally. Because the shift away from linear has been slower in politics than in brand advertising, demand often tends to concentrate in specific formats and geographies.
The timing of that demand adds further complexity. Historically, a substantial majority of political out of home spending in even-year elections has occurred in the second half of the calendar year. As races become competitive or tighten late, budgets can expand quickly. Campaigns must be prepared for rapid shifts, while advertisers in those markets adjust to compressed timelines and heightened demand.
Political advertising also carries broader cultural and economic effects. Voters do not compartmentalize their experiences with media. Messaging about inflation, jobs, and economic security can shape consumer confidence and spending behavior. Recent research has shown that political affiliation increasingly influences how individuals perceive economic conditions, sometimes more than their own personal financial situation. Campaign communications now operate within an emotional environment that affects both civic decisions and consumer behavior.
Geography plays a central role in how these dynamics unfold. Political spending is unevenly distributed. Many markets experience modest disruption, while a concentrated group of battleground states and major metropolitan areas absorb the majority of dollars. In 2026, competitive House districts are clustered in major markets such as New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Detroit, but have also expanded to much less populated districts such as those in Iowa. Senate battlegrounds in states like Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Texas and Ohio could see spending levels that rival past records.
The impact extends beyond traditional television and digital channels. According to OAAA research, 68% of likely voters reported recently seeing political advertising through out of home media, highlighting the growing role OOH plays in reaching voters across both major metropolitan areas and local communities. Further, there is a growing desire for actionable competitive spend data for non-linear media. The better the intel, the more spending will flow to those mediums that do report this vital information.
Given these realities, preparation matters. Campaigns should evaluate where their plans are most exposed to late-cycle volatility, understand when key rate windows open, and anticipate whether primaries or potential runoffs could extend the period of spending pressure. They should also consider how market saturation may affect voter receptivity over time.
The scale of political advertising in 2026 is already commanding headlines. The more important takeaway is that the media marketplace itself has changed. Political advertising has become embedded in its economics and rhythms. Campaigns that recognize this shift and plan accordingly will be better positioned to navigate the intensity of the coming cycle and subsequent cycles.
About the author
Tyler Goldberg is the Director of Political Strategy at Assembly Global, where he helps oversee the planning and execution of political media strategies on campaigns around the country. Since joining Assembly in 2020, Tyler has helped build and lead the agency’s Political Practice, establishing it as the only global omnichannel commercial media firm with a political vertical. Tyler has led the development of Assembly’s Advocacy Consulting Technology (ACT) practice – a suite of tools designed to help commercial advertisers navigate the challenging political landscape. ACT has helped both new and existing Assembly clients avoid the pitfalls of performative advocacy and tailor proactive media strategies around hot-button cultural issues.
Prior to joining Assembly, Tyler worked in the Institutional Asset Management Practice at Dukas Linden Public Relations and served as a Senior Strategist at Canal Partners Media. Tyler also spent time working on political campaigns in New York and Georgia.
An expert in political media and its effects on commercial advertising, Tyler is an active thought leader in the field. He has written several white papers and spoken at events hosted by MediaPost, AAPC, SXSW, and others. Additionally, he has been featured in Campaigns & Elections, the Drum, AdAge, and Bloomberg.
